Will “Iran” be said on The Briefing next time?
As of Oct 25, 2026, “Iran” was said on The Briefing in 3 of 5 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 5, 2026 (60%), most recently on Sep 8, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 51% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 episodes we have transcripts for (Sep 8, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), 1 names the market's speakers, and the word reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in it.
- Last 10
- 3/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
The Briefing with Jen Psaki
Iran
- Probability
- 51% · n=5
- Settled
- 3/5 (60%)
- Last 8 episodes
- said in 1 of 1 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
3 counted; 2 by speakers the rule does not count.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Every settled listing
newest first · 5 shown
KalshiQuestions
- How often is “Iran” said on The Briefing?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, “Iran” was said on The Briefing in 3 of 5 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 5, 2026 (60%), most recently on Sep 8, 2026.
- What is the probability “Iran” is said on The Briefing next time?
- 51%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “The Briefing: ‘Iran’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/the-briefing-with-jen-psaki/words/iran (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=the-briefing-with-jen-psaki&word=iran · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=the-briefing-with-jen-psaki&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP