What is the probability “Train” appears on the NYT front page next time?

43%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: anyone.

Will “Train” appear on the next NYT front page?

Name: NYT front page: “Train” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 24, 2026, “Train” did not appear on the NYT front page on the only day with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Jun 28, 2026.

Of the last 8 front pages we have transcripts for (Aug 30, 2026 – Oct 18, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, anyone) in 3.

–too little history for a probability (n=1)

Last 10: 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
Streak: not said last time
Counts: anyone

Updated Oct 24, 2026, 17:55 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

The New York Times (front page)

Train

Probability: – · n=1 (too little history)
Settled: 0/1 (0%)
Last 8 front pages: said in 3 of 8

Next listing counts: anyone

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Friday, September 25otherNYT front-page headlines, September 21–27, 2026 · Sep 27, 2026In transcript

Leaders in Tech Clash Over Ways to Train

Tuesday, September 15otherNYT front-page headlines, September 14–20, 2026 · Sep 20, 2026In transcript

Near Miss on Train Is Warning for the West

Monday, September 7otherNYT front-page headlines, September 7–13, 2026 · Sep 13, 2026In transcript

Train Data That Swings

What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

Open the appearance

What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (October 5 - October 11) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (September 28 - October 4) · not listed

Open the appearance

What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (September 21 - September 27) · not listed

Open the appearance

What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (September 14 - September 20) · not listed

Open the appearance

What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (September 7 - September 13) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (August 31 - September 6) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (August 24 - August 30) · not listed

Open the appearance

What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (August 17 - August 23) · not listed

Open the appearance

What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (August 10 - August 16) · not listed

Open the appearance

Every settled listing

newest first · 1 shown

Every settled listing of this word, newest first
Date	Listed as	Venue	Result
Jun 28, 2026	Train	Polymarket	No

Questions

How often does “Train” appear on the NYT front page?: As of Oct 24, 2026, “Train” did not appear on the NYT front page on the only day with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Jun 28, 2026.
What is the probability “Train” appears on the NYT front page next time?: 43%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?: Under the next market's rule: anyone.

Cite parrot.markets, “NYT front page: ‘Train’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/nyt-front-page/words/train (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=nyt-front-page&word=train · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=nyt-front-page&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP