What is the probability “JD / Vance” appears on the NYT front page next time?

44%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: anyone.

Will “JD / Vance” appear on the next NYT front page?

Name: NYT front page: “JD / Vance” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 24, 2026, “JD / Vance” did not appear on the NYT front page on the only day with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on May 10, 2026.

Of the last 8 front pages we have transcripts for (Aug 30, 2026 – Oct 18, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, anyone) in 3.

–too little history for a probability (n=1)

Last 10: 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
Streak: not said last time
Counts: anyone

Updated Oct 24, 2026, 14:35 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

The New York Times (front page)

JD / Vance

Probability: – · n=1 (too little history)
Settled: 0/1 (0%)
Last 8 front pages: said in 3 of 8

Next listing counts: anyone

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Monday, September 28otherNYT front-page headlines, September 28–October 4, 2026 · Oct 4, 2026In transcript

Vague Data Mars Vance’s Federal Fraud Claims

Sunday, September 13otherNYT front-page headlines, September 7–13, 2026 · Sep 13, 2026In transcript

Quietly, Vance Sought Blunt Views on Iran

Wednesday, September 2otherNYT front-page headlines, August 31–September 6, 2026 · Sep 6, 2026In transcript

Vance Strives To Win Over Jewish Voters

What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (October 5 - October 11) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (September 28 - October 4) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (September 21 - September 27) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (September 14 - September 20) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (September 7 - September 13) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (August 31 - September 6) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (August 24 - August 30) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (August 17 - August 23) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (August 10 - August 16) · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 1 shown

Every settled listing of this word, newest first
Date	Listed as	Venue	Result
May 10, 2026	JD / Vance	Polymarket	No

Questions

How often does “JD / Vance” appear on the NYT front page?: As of Oct 24, 2026, “JD / Vance” did not appear on the NYT front page on the only day with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on May 10, 2026.
What is the probability “JD / Vance” appears on the NYT front page next time?: 44%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?: Under the next market's rule: anyone.

Cite parrot.markets, “NYT front page: ‘JD / Vance’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/nyt-front-page/words/jd-or-vance (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=nyt-front-page&word=jd%20%2F%20vance · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=nyt-front-page&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP