Will “Elon / Musk” appear on the next NYT front page?
As of Oct 25, 2026, “Elon / Musk” did not appear on the NYT front page on any of the 2 days with a settled Polymarket mention market since May 3, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 40% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 front pages we have transcripts for (Sep 6, 2026 – Oct 25, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, anyone) in 1.
- Last 10
- 0/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- anyone
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearanceThe New York Times (front page)
Elon / Musk
- Probability
- 40% · n=2
- Settled
- 0/2 (0%)
- Last 8 front pages
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: anyone
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
MUSK’S SPENDING ON THE MIDTERMS HITS $366 MILLION
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | Elon / Musk |  Polymarket | No | 0 |
| May 3, 2026 | Elon / Musk | Polymarket | No | – |
Questions
- How often does “Elon / Musk” appear on the NYT front page?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, “Elon / Musk” did not appear on the NYT front page on any of the 2 days with a settled Polymarket mention market since May 3, 2026.
- What is the probability “Elon / Musk” appears on the NYT front page next time?
- 40%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: anyone.
Cite parrot.markets, “NYT front page: ‘Elon / Musk’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/nyt-front-page/words/elon-or-musk (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=nyt-front-page&word=elon%20%2F%20musk · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=nyt-front-page&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP