What is the probability “California” appears on the NYT front page next time?

45%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: anyone.

Will “California” appear on the next NYT front page?

Name: NYT front page: “California” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 25, 2026, “California” appeared on the NYT front page on the only day with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on May 10, 2026.

Of the last 8 front pages we have transcripts for (Aug 30, 2026 – Oct 18, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, anyone) in 3.

–too little history for a probability (n=1)

Last 10: 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
Streak: said last time
Last said: May 6, 2026
Counts: anyone

Updated Oct 25, 2026, 03:03 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

The New York Times (front page)

California

Probability: – · n=1 (too little history)
Settled: 1/1 (100%)
Last 8 front pages: said in 3 of 8

Next listing counts: anyone

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Monday, October 19otherNYT front-page headlines, October 19–25, 2026 · Oct 25, 2026In transcript

Weighing Sprawl in California Wearing Their Growing Power Who Gets to Define Beautiful?

Thursday, October 15otherNYT front-page headlines, October 12–18, 2026 · Oct 18, 2026In transcript

Becerra Could Make California History. He’s Not Dwelling on It.

Saturday, September 26otherNYT front-page headlines, September 21–27, 2026 · Sep 27, 2026In transcript

California Braces for El Niño Can Meta’s A.I. Run Your Life?

Thursday, September 10otherNYT front-page headlines, September 7–13, 2026 · Sep 13, 2026In transcript

California U-Turn on Nuclear Still Carrying the Torch

What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (October 5 - October 11) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (September 28 - October 4) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (September 21 - September 27) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (September 14 - September 20) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (September 7 - September 13) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (August 31 - September 6) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (August 24 - August 30) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (August 17 - August 23) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (August 10 - August 16) · not listed

Open the appearance

Every settled listing

newest first · 1 shown

Every settled listing of this word, newest first
Date	Listed as	Venue	Result
May 10, 2026	California	Polymarket	Yes

Questions

How often does “California” appear on the NYT front page?: As of Oct 25, 2026, “California” appeared on the NYT front page on the only day with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on May 10, 2026.
What is the probability “California” appears on the NYT front page next time?: 45%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?: Under the next market's rule: anyone.

Cite parrot.markets, “NYT front page: ‘California’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/nyt-front-page/words/california (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=nyt-front-page&word=california · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=nyt-front-page&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP