Donald Trump: Weekly window, May 16, 2025
Polymarket What will Trump say this week?
Coverage
0 known appearancesno known appearances yet Window: May 10, 2025 to May 16, 2025. Counts: spoken only (posts do not count). 0 own posts by @realDonaldTrump.
Markets
14 words · 9 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
Counts marked ≥ are lower bounds: not every appearance in this window is transcribed yet, so a word may have been said more often.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MAGA / Make America Great Again | Yes | – | 0 | 70%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | Yes | – | 0 | 64%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Abraham | Yes | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Boeing | Yes | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Crown | Yes | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Dome / Shield | Yes | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Netanyahu / Bibi | Yes | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Roosevelt | Yes | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tower | Yes | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Persian | No | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Slavery | No | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Pardon / Pardoned | No | – | 0 | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Beach | No | – | 0 | 44%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Trump card / Gold card | No | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-this-week-486 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP