# Joe Biden (joe-biden) · speech 2024-07-24 · 15 words · P p:what-will-biden-say-during-drop-out-speech · as_of 2026-10-24T23:11:48Z
# scope P named · n/y settled before 2024-07-24 · tn/th blank: no speech transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: v P · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Democracy	democracy	1	2	2	1	YY	0.56	hist	yes
Kamala Harris	kamala harris	1	1	1	1	Y	0.47	hist	yes
Malarkey	malarkey	1	2	1	0.5	Yn	0.39	hist	no
Folks 3+ times	folk#3	3	1	0	0	n	0.3	hist	no
Dementia	dementia	1	1	0	0	n	0.29	hist	no
Obama	obama	1	2	0	0	nn	0.26	hist	no
Old	old	1	3	0	0	nnn	0.25	hist	no
Jill	jill	1	2	0	0	nn	0.25	hist	no
Drop out	drop out	1	4	0	0	nnnn	0.23	hist	no
Anyway 5+ times	anyway#5	5	0	0			0.36	prior	no
Brat	brat	1	0	0			0.36	prior	no
Covid	covid	1	0	0			0.36	prior	no
Resign	resign	1	0	0			0.36	prior	no
Sick	sick	1	0	0			0.36	prior	no
Trump	trump	1	0	0			0.36	prior	no