Chris Wright: Panel, Sep 18, 2026
Kalshi What will Chris Wright say during his critical minerals fireside chat?
Markets
17 words · 8 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 75%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 75%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| SMR / Small Modular Reactor | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Solar / Windmill | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| China | Yes | 62%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Cobalt | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mine / Mining | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 74%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Data Center | No | 71%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 3+ times | No | 62%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Rare Earth | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Saudi | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Supply Chain | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Uranium | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Zambia / Congo | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tariff | No | 42%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXPOLITICSMENTION-26SEP18 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP