Will Chris Wright say “China”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Chris Wright said “China” at 3 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 15, 2026 (75%), most recently on Sep 18, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 66% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 episodes; Mar 8, 2026 – Oct 4, 2026), since fewer than 2 panels have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.
- Last 10
- 3/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Chris Wright
China
- Probability
- 66% · n=4
- Settled
- 3/4 (75%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 2 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (5 episodes); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…Diesel's mostly been impacted by the Russia- Ukraine war and also by China's decision not to export diesel or gasoline into the marketplace. And, of…
…trading – tariffs, for example. Country of origin tariffs. For example, on China. What our trading partner Canada is doing is say, hey, China, put…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…are less safe. Whether it's a conflict in the western Pacific with China or somewhere else in the world, the munitions are depleted. You may…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…million barrels of floating Russian crude waiting in line to deliver to China. That's going to be sold. It's going to be refined. But that…
We don’t have this transcript yet.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown
KalshiQuestions
- How often does Chris Wright say “China”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Chris Wright said “China” at 3 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 15, 2026 (75%), most recently on Sep 18, 2026.
- What is the probability Chris Wright says “China” next time?
- 66%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Chris Wright: ‘China’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/chris-wright/words/china (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=chris-wright&word=china · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=chris-wright&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP