The Rachel Maddow Show: Episode, Mar 23, 2026
Kalshi What will Rachel Maddow say during her show?
Markets
19 words · 11 settled yes- Kalshi: the host Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hormuz | Yes | 54%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| ICE / DHS | Yes | 54%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Russia / Ukraine | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Prison / Prisoner | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Election | Yes | 44%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Kristi / Noem | Yes | 42%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Airport | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| TSA | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | Yes | 38%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| JD / Vance | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Nuclear | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hegseth | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Inflation | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Keir / Starmer | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tariff | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Epstein | No | 38%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| China | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Drone | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXMADDOWMENTION-26MAR23 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP