Kathy Hochul: Remarks, Apr 9, 2026
Kalshi What will Kathy Hochul say during her announcement?
Markets
14 words · 6 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 71%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Mayor / Mamdani | Yes | 69%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Insurance | Yes | 68%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Safe / Safety / Safer | Yes | 66%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Childcare | Yes | 60%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 50%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Buffalo | No | 64%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 62%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | No | 61%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | No | 45%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Economy / Economic | No | 39%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Billionaire | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump | No | 33%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Republican | No | 26%n=9 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXHOCHULMENTION-26APR09 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP