Congressional hearings, Jun 30, 2026
Kalshi What will the witnesses say during the House hearing on Sanctuary Policies?
Markets
16 words · 12 settled yes- Kalshi: any witness Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deport / Deported / Deportation | Yes | 75%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Sanctuary | Yes | 74%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Mexico / Mexican | Yes | 70%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Border | Yes | 67%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| ICE / DHS | Yes | 66%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Biden | Yes | 62%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Chicago | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Release / Released | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fentanyl | Yes | 48%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 3+ times | Yes | 47%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Cartel | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| New York | No | 71%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Protest / Protester | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Homan | No | 56%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Renee / Pretti | No | 54%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXHEARINGMENTION-26JUN30 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP