Congressional hearings, Jun 9, 2026
Kalshi What will the witnesses say during the hearing on Chinese Money Laundering and Cartel Financing?
Markets
12 words · 7 settled yes- Kalshi: any witness Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 77%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Border | Yes | 69%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Mexico / Mexican | Yes | 66%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Beijing | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fentanyl | Yes | 48%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Cryptocurrency | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump 3+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | 71%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | No | 58%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Hawala | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Biden | No | 56%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Russia / Russian | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXHEARINGMENTION-26JUN09B · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP