# Joe Biden (joe-biden) · speech 2025-11-08 · 21 words · K k:KXBIDENMENTION-25NOV08 · as_of 2026-10-25T04:30:05Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-11-08 · tn/th blank: no speech transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXBIDENMENTION-25NOV08 ({word} = w of K rows): If Joe Biden says {word} as part of Ben Nelson Gala on November 7th, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Democracy	democracy	5	4	0.8	YYYnY	0.42	hist	yes
Republican	republican	1	1	1	Y	0.41	hist	yes
Shutdown / Shut Down	shut down|shutdown	1	1	1	Y	0.41	hist	yes
Trump	trump	5	2	0.4	nnnYY	0.37	hist	yes
Obama	obama	5	1	0.2	nnnnY	0.32	hist	no
Putin	putin	3	1	0.33	nYn	0.28	hist	no
Kamala	kamala	0	0			0.27	hist	no
King	king	1	0	0	n	0.25	hist	yes
Pelosi	pelosi	1	0	0	n	0.25	hist	no
China	china	1	0	0	n	0.24	hist	yes
Medicare / Medicaid	medicaid|medicare	0	0			0.24	hist	no
SNAP / Food Stamp	food stamp|snap	1	0	0	n	0.23	hist	no
Ukraine	ukraine	2	0	0	nn	0.2	hist	no
Tariff	tariff	3	0	0	nnn	0.18	hist	no
Ballroom	ballroom	0	0			0.28	prior	no
Chuck / Schumer	chuck|schumer	0	0			0.28	prior	no
Election	election	0	0			0.28	prior	yes
ICE / National Guard	ice|national guard	0	0			0.28	prior	no
Ice Cream	ice cream	0	0			0.28	prior	no
Midterm	midterm	0	0			0.28	prior	no
New York	new york	0	0			0.28	prior	yes