Bernie Sanders: Episode, Jul 26, 2026
Kalshi What will Bernie say during Face the Nation?
Markets
18 words · 7 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zohran / Mamdani | Yes | 74%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Netanyahu | Yes | 71%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 67%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 64%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | Yes | 57%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 48%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| RFK / Kennedy | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump 3+ times | No | 78%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 77%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Robot / Robotic / Robotics | No | 77%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Graham / Platner | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Socialist / Socialism | No | 47%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Bernie | No | 44%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| ICE | No | 37%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Trillionaire | No | 32%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Data Center | No | 29%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Endorse / Endorsed / Endorsement | No | 24%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| ChatGPT / OpenAI | No | 22%n=13 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXBERNIEMENTION-26JUL26 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP