Bernie Sanders: Remarks, Apr 20, 2026
Kalshi What will Bernie say during his More Perfect University Kick Off Call?
Markets
17 words · 12 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elon / Musk | Yes | 74%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Robot / Robotic / Robotics | Yes | 66%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | Yes | 66%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | Yes | 57%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 52%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 52%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Climate | Yes | 51%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Bernie | Yes | 46%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | Yes | 44%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Billionaire 2+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Republican | Yes | 41%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Data Center | Yes | 36%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Prediction Market | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| ICE / TSA | No | 44%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| ChatGPT / OpenAI | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Bipartisan | No | 31%n=6 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
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