Will “Iran / Iranian” be said on All In next time?
As of Oct 26, 2026, “Iran / Iranian” was said on All In in 1 of 8 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since May 21, 2026 (12%), most recently on Sep 15, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 35% (n=8, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 7 episodes we have transcripts for (Aug 24, 2026 – Oct 6, 2026), 1 names the market's speakers, and the word did not reach the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in it.
- Last 10
- 1/8Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no yes no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
All In with Chris Hayes
Iran / Iranian
- Probability
- 35% · n=8
- Settled
- 1/8 (12%)
- Last 7 episodes
- said in 0 of 1 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
2 counted; 2 by speakers the rule does not count.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Not counted under this market’s speaker rule.
Counts: named speaker only
1 counted; 5 by speakers the rule does not count.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Not counted under this market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 8 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2026 | Iran / Iranian |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Oct 5, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Aug 24, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | No | 1 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement) |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | No | – |
| May 21, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | No | – |
Questions
- How often is “Iran / Iranian” said on All In?
- As of Oct 26, 2026, “Iran / Iranian” was said on All In in 1 of 8 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since May 21, 2026 (12%), most recently on Sep 15, 2026.
- What is the probability “Iran / Iranian” is said on All In next time?
- 35%, from settlement history (n=8). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “All In: ‘Iran / Iranian’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/all-in-with-chris-hayes/words/iran-or-iranian (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=all-in-with-chris-hayes&word=iran%20%2F%20iranian · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=all-in-with-chris-hayes&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP