Carvana (CVNA): FY26 Q2 earnings call, Jul 29, 2026
On its Jul 29, 2026 earnings call (FY26 Q2), Carvana said 5 of the 14 words Kalshi listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 14 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each, with timed clips.
UpdatedMarkets
14 words · 5 settled yes · our count agreed on 14 of 14- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Clip | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tariff | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 59%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 5:54, Tariff | – |
| Sebastian | Yes | 3 | 5 | ✓ | 27%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 23:36, Sebastian | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 1 | 2 | ✓ | 81%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 23:23, AI / Artificial Intelligence | – |
| Acquired / Acquisition | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 80%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 4:46, Acquired / Acquisition | – |
| Market Share | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 66%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 1:25, Market Share | – |
| Auction | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 77%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Title / Registration | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 71%transcripts from the transcript model | – | |
| Automation | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 47%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Same Day | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 40%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Ally | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 39%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Iran / Middle East | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 37%transcripts from the transcript model | – | |
| Insurance | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 22%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Bridgecrest | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 10%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| DriveTime | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 10%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
4 matches for “Headwind”; 4 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…undergrown sales over the last several months, and that certainly creates a headwind to just the overall business. The team's got a great plan, and…
That put the headwind on the business that has to show up some way, either it's going to show up in lower sales or lower…
…way. Last quarter, you talked about kind of the $200-$300 of GPU headwinds. As you look at how things have unfolded, it does appear that…
…decide how to express it. I think we've been dealing with those headwinds a little bit over the last quarter or so, and I think…
Where the listed words were said
…unit growth and adjusted EBITDA margin. Non-GAAP Retail GPU decreased by $105, primarily driven by lapping the approximately $100 benefit from tariff-related effects last year.
I think that may take the form of Sebastian, so it may happen in chat, or it may take the form of different kind of…
…sold growth primarily due to traditional gross revenue treatment for certain vehicles acquired from a large retail marketplace partner, higher industry-wide prices, and a mix…
…just two years ago. That sales volume puts us at just 2% market share of the used car market and 1.5% of the auto retail…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/carvana:2026-07-29:earnings_call · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=carvana:2026-07-29:earnings_call · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP