FedEx (FDX): FY26 Q4 earnings call, Jun 23, 2026
On its Jun 23, 2026 earnings call (FY26 Q4), FedEx said 6 of the 12 words Kalshi listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 12 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each, with timed clips.
UpdatedMarkets
12 words · 6 settled yes · our count agreed on 12 of 12- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Clip | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 80%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 25:38, Dividend | – |
| Guidance | Yes | 2 | 3 | ✓ | 61%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 50:26, Guidance | – |
| De Minimis | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 80%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 53:09, De Minimis | – |
| Smith | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 74%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 4:52, Smith | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 60%n=4+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 53:08, Tariff | – |
| Inventory | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 44%n=4+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 42:01, Inventory | – |
| China | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 71%transcripts from the transcript model | – | |
| E-commerce / Ecommerce | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 69%n=4+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| ServiceNow | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 32%transcripts from the transcript model | – | |
| Automation | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 22%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Labor | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | 21%n=4+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| EV / Electric Vehicle | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 11%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
1 match for “Tariff”; 1 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…very tough year for them. They faced the largest headwind from the tariff environment and the de minimis, and we've now had two consecutive quarters…
Where the listed words were said
…cash flow growth supports our capital returns framework. We recently increased our dividend by 5% after adjusting for the FedEx Freight spin-off, making this the…
…freight, how we're accounting for that. That is not included in our guidance. On an ongoing basis, we will be required each quarter to mark…
…Freight is extremely well-positioned as an independent company, and I wish John Smith and the Freight team the very best. Now turning to our full-year…
…four key verticals. I do think that there's a little bit of inventory buildup and restocking going on. Phenomenal, successful quarter. We're really proud of…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/fedex:2026-06-23:earnings_call · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=fedex:2026-06-23:earnings_call · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP