Airbnb (ABNB): FY26 Q1 earnings call, May 7, 2026
On its May 7, 2026 earnings call (FY26 Q1), Airbnb said 8 of the 12 words Kalshi listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 12 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
12 words · 8 settled yes · our count agreed on 12 of 12- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World Cup | Yes | 5 | 6 | ✓ | 72%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Take Rate | Yes | 5 | 7 | ✓ | 63%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Boutique | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 78%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Headwind | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 53%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Tailwind | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 66%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| International | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 75%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Acquisition | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 40%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Home Sharing | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 22%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Service Agent | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 76%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Domestic | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 73%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Social Media | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 64%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| China | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 24%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
6 matches for “World Cup”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…and community leaders during the game, strengthening our relationships across Italy. The World Cup is the next chapter in our event strategy. We expect to…
Thanks for taking the questions. I guess I'd like to touch on World Cup in North America. Can you kind of talk about booking patterns?…
Thanks, Nick, for the question. We're extremely excited about the World Cup. So far, in terms of what we've seen in cumulative books, bookings heading…
Is what we've seen in terms of past events, both previous World Cups as well as, both most recent Olympics, is that a lot of…
…supply, yes, we commented that in the 16 host cities for the World Cup, we have attracted an incremental 100,000 listings across those markets in…
Where the listed words were said
…structure and our insurance program, which are expected to lift our full-year take rate. We remain optimistic about our continued momentum, even as we face…
…in addition to homes. To capture even more trips, we're scaling our boutique and independent hotel pilot to more mature markets around the world. Early…
…seats booked grew 9% after accounting for an approximate 100 basis point headwind from the conflict in the Middle East. We're seeing this momentum show…
…generate revenue of $3.54 billion-$3.6 billion, representing year-over-year growth of 14%-16%. This includes an approximate 3% foreign exchange tailwind after factoring in our hedging program.
…to support further growth across the business, specifically on efficient marketing spend, international expansion, and AI initiatives. To close, our confidence in the increased full-year…
…specifically for the games. You know, when we think about the supply acquisition for these events, candidly, we don't need all of the supply to…
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