TBPN: Episode, Apr 9, 2026
On the Apr 9, 2026 episode of TBPN, 8 of the 12 words Kalshi listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with all 12 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
12 words · 8 settled yes · our count agreed on 12 of 12- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 14 | 93 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Blockchain | Yes | 9 | 9 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Prediction Market | Yes | 8 | 12 | ✓ | 48%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Bitcoin 2+ times | Yes | 4 | 23 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump | Yes | 3 | 5 | ✓ | 25%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 2 | 6 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Stablecoin | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ethereum / ETH | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fraud | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| FTX / SBF | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Pardon | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Winter | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsPublisher transcript · TBPN podcast transcript (publisher RSS) · Source · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
12 matches for “Prediction Market”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
Yeah. So I think I today, I do think prediction markets has a huge potential and it's already pretty big. Like, the the top players…
…times. I every time I watch him talk, he seems to mention prediction markets. So it seems like the regulators and the, traditional markets are…
…get traction. You have to implement the right idea at the right time. I don't know what all the ingredients are for prediction markets, but
…the EZ Labs, the fund I'm involved with, we invest in multiple prediction markets, so we'll see which ones work. But I do think that…
…a little bit different. Yeah. Right? There'll be something that's know, even prediction markets today, they're different from the sort of prediction markets four or…
Where the listed words were said
Sure. Absolutely. Yeah. I think what both AI and blockchain are big recent new big industries. I think there's really three big technologies in my…
…too transparent. It's actually extremely easy to track crypto funds. Like, the blockchain is a public ledger, and then if you couple that with a…
Sure. I mean, look, from 2013, right, people think that Bitcoin's only used by drug lords, or for illicit activities. The truth is actually, if…
Yeah. I think America, for the last few years, before the Trump administration was, you know, fairly anti crypto, so many of the, founders left,…
…They're very hard to predict. Mhmm. I think the president Xi in China is easier to predict than president Trump. President Trump is like a…
…regulatory guy. But, seems like, no, there's a lot of debates about, stablecoin interest rates. So, I think it's a big important issue, but from…
…have a founder centralization. Yeah. Right? For example, if you look at Ethereum, Metallic's there. Right? So there's a founder centralization. Yep. What makes Bitcoin…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/tbpn:2026-04-09:podcast_episode · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=tbpn:2026-04-09:podcast_episode · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP