TBPN: Episode, Apr 9, 2026
On the Apr 9, 2026 episode of TBPN, 8 of the 12 words Kalshi listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with all 12 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
12 words · 8 settled yes · our count agreed on 12 of 12- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 14 | 93 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Blockchain | Yes | 9 | 9 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Prediction Market | Yes | 8 | 12 | ✓ | 48%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Bitcoin 2+ times | Yes | 4 | 23 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump | Yes | 3 | 5 | ✓ | 25%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 2 | 6 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Stablecoin | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ethereum / ETH | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fraud | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| FTX / SBF | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Pardon | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Winter | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsPublisher transcript · TBPN podcast transcript (publisher RSS) · Source · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
0 matches for “Ethereum / ETH”.
Where the listed words were said
Sure. Absolutely. Yeah. I think what both AI and blockchain are big recent new big industries. I think there's really three big technologies in my…
…too transparent. It's actually extremely easy to track crypto funds. Like, the blockchain is a public ledger, and then if you couple that with a…
Yeah. So I think I today, I do think prediction markets has a huge potential and it's already pretty big. Like, the the top players…
Sure. I mean, look, from 2013, right, people think that Bitcoin's only used by drug lords, or for illicit activities. The truth is actually, if…
Yeah. I think America, for the last few years, before the Trump administration was, you know, fairly anti crypto, so many of the, founders left,…
…They're very hard to predict. Mhmm. I think the president Xi in China is easier to predict than president Trump. President Trump is like a…
…regulatory guy. But, seems like, no, there's a lot of debates about, stablecoin interest rates. So, I think it's a big important issue, but from…
…have a founder centralization. Yeah. Right? For example, if you look at Ethereum, Metallic's there. Right? So there's a founder centralization. Yep. What makes Bitcoin…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/tbpn:2026-04-09:podcast_episode · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=tbpn:2026-04-09:podcast_episode · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP