TBPN: Episode, Apr 9, 2026
On the Apr 9, 2026 episode of TBPN, 8 of the 12 words Kalshi listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with all 12 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
12 words · 8 settled yes · our count agreed on 12 of 12- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 14 | 93 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Blockchain | Yes | 9 | 9 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Prediction Market | Yes | 8 | 12 | ✓ | 48%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Bitcoin 2+ times | Yes | 4 | 23 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump | Yes | 3 | 5 | ✓ | 25%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 2 | 6 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Stablecoin | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ethereum / ETH | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fraud | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| FTX / SBF | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Pardon | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Winter | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsPublisher transcript · TBPN podcast transcript (publisher RSS) · Source · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
9 matches for “Blockchain”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…too transparent. It's actually extremely easy to track crypto funds. Like, the blockchain is a public ledger, and then if you couple that with a…
…in crypto Mhmm. And if you get one payment today on the blockchain, you can just trace to the address I paid you and see…
Sure. Absolutely. Yeah. I think what both AI and blockchain are big recent new big industries. I think there's really three big technologies in my…
…payments in every country is a little bit different. Mhmm. Whereas crypto, blockchain is the same across different countries. So, one you integrate with the…
I think right now, a lot of the applications are, in blockchain, quite difficult to build. I think with AI, we can probably build safer…
Where the listed words were said
I actually think AI is going to improve security for most projects. Like Anthropic Cloud. Yeah. Right? So now they're I think if you play…
…There's, the biggest crypto exchanges are not in America, today. The biggest blockchains, the biggest stablecoin, they're not America based, So I think America misses…
Yeah. So I think I today, I do think prediction markets has a huge potential and it's already pretty big. Like, the the top players…
Sure. I mean, look, from 2013, right, people think that Bitcoin's only used by drug lords, or for illicit activities. The truth is actually, if…
…think the president Xi in China is easier to predict than president Trump. President Trump is like a wildcard. Right? It's like which is which…
…Some sometimes AI make very obvious mistakes. You know, you you pronounce Chinese names wrong, which I would not make that mistake. Yeah. You pronounce…
…regulatory guy. But, seems like, no, there's a lot of debates about, stablecoin interest rates. So, I think it's a big important issue, but from…
…have a founder centralization. Yeah. Right? For example, if you look at Ethereum, Metallic's there. Right? So there's a founder centralization. Yep. What makes Bitcoin…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/tbpn:2026-04-09:podcast_episode · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=tbpn:2026-04-09:podcast_episode · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP