Costco (COST): FY26 Q2 earnings call, Mar 5, 2026
On its Mar 5, 2026 earnings call (FY26 Q2), Costco said 11 of the 15 words Kalshi listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 15 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
15 words · 11 settled yes · our count agreed on 15 of 15- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Membership | Yes | 23 | 28 | ✓ | 97%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 14 | 14 | ✓ | 95%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Renewal | Yes | 13 | 16 | ✓ | 96%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Inflation | Yes | 12 | 14 | ✓ | 97%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Dividend | Yes | 6 | 7 | ✓ | 39%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Kirkland | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 95%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Expansion | Yes | 3 | 4 | ✓ | 86%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Inventory | Yes | 2 | 3 | ✓ | 94%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Revenue | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 80%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Spending | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 56%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Valuation | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 12%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Holiday | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 84%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Labor | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | 78%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Hot Dog | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 50%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Automation | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 13%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
3 matches for “Retail Media”; 3 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…sort of being able to provide promotional opportunities for them. From a retail media perspective, we think of that as being somewhat of a new…
…encouraged by that. I'd say we're still in the early innings with retail media because while we've been doing that, we're definitely testing and doing…
…line sales results as we see it today. And I think on retail media, I think really -- we do think it's a significant opportunity,…
Where the listed words were said
…price deflation and changes in FX. Moving down the income statement to membership fee income. We reported membership fee income of $1.355 billion, an increase…
…before turning it back over to Gary. Let me start by addressing tariffs, as I know this topic is of great interest to our members…
…last year and 147.2 million cardholders, up 4.7% year-over-year. In terms of renewal rates, at Q2 end, our U.S. and Canada renewal rate was 92.1%,…
…as eggs, cheese, coffee and some paper products as we saw lower inflation in these commodities. We will continue to be a pricing authority and…
…subject to Board approval, we want to continue to grow the regular dividend because we think that's a core sort of fundamental part of demonstrating…
…buying efforts globally to lower the cost of goods, leaning in on Kirkland Signature, where we have the most control of the supply chain and…
…both in employees and in pricing and in the business overall and expansion, as Gary mentioned and I mentioned in the earlier talk that we…
…relatively stable in Q2, and our merchants feel good about our current inventory position heading into the spring. That said, as we look at the…
…us in terms of adding younger new members and helping with total revenue growth and some of the comments I made about the membership growth,…
…balance on our balance sheet today. And we do think, with our valuation, the special dividend is probably the most effective way to return excess…
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