Costco (COST): FY26 Q2 earnings call, Mar 5, 2026
On its Mar 5, 2026 earnings call (FY26 Q2), Costco said 11 of the 15 words Kalshi listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 15 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
15 words · 11 settled yes · our count agreed on 15 of 15- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Membership | Yes | 23 | 28 | ✓ | 97%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 14 | 14 | ✓ | 95%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Renewal | Yes | 13 | 16 | ✓ | 96%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Inflation | Yes | 12 | 14 | ✓ | 97%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Dividend | Yes | 6 | 7 | ✓ | 39%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Kirkland | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 95%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Expansion | Yes | 3 | 4 | ✓ | 86%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Inventory | Yes | 2 | 3 | ✓ | 94%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Revenue | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 80%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Spending | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 56%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Valuation | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 12%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Holiday | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 84%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Labor | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | 78%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Hot Dog | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 50%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Automation | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 13%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
16 matches for “Renewal”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…last year and 147.2 million cardholders, up 4.7% year-over-year. In terms of renewal rates, at Q2 end, our U.S. and Canada renewal rate was 92.1%,…
…lower rate than warehouse sign-ups. We continue to focus on increasing the renewal rate of these new online members through targeted digital communications and retention…
…mature and growing their membership base, as I mentioned earlier, improving the renewal rates as we're making good progress in those as well. And then…
Thanks for the questions. It's on renewal rates. The U.S. down about 10 basis points, worldwide flat. So is this the real bottom here? Given…
…you sign your membership up for auto renew. Can you talk about the uptake for that program and how that's helping renewal rate as well?
Where the listed words were said
…price deflation and changes in FX. Moving down the income statement to membership fee income. We reported membership fee income of $1.355 billion, an increase…
…before turning it back over to Gary. Let me start by addressing tariffs, as I know this topic is of great interest to our members…
…the total mix of members, it does bring down slightly the overall renewal rate. When we called that out 2 or 3 quarters ago, we…
…as eggs, cheese, coffee and some paper products as we saw lower inflation in these commodities. We will continue to be a pricing authority and…
…subject to Board approval, we want to continue to grow the regular dividend because we think that's a core sort of fundamental part of demonstrating…
…buying efforts globally to lower the cost of goods, leaning in on Kirkland Signature, where we have the most control of the supply chain and…
…both in employees and in pricing and in the business overall and expansion, as Gary mentioned and I mentioned in the earlier talk that we…
…relatively stable in Q2, and our merchants feel good about our current inventory position heading into the spring. That said, as we look at the…
…a meaningful amount of dollars that we generate from sort of media revenue today, and that is growing double digits. We have over -- I…
…to more of those marketing dollars that our vendors and suppliers are spending. Our first priority is really to build the capabilities internally around delivering…
…balance on our balance sheet today. And we do think, with our valuation, the special dividend is probably the most effective way to return excess…
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