Costco (COST): FY26 Q2 earnings call, Mar 5, 2026
On its Mar 5, 2026 earnings call (FY26 Q2), Costco said 11 of the 15 words Kalshi listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 15 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
15 words · 11 settled yes · our count agreed on 15 of 15- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Membership | Yes | 23 | 28 | ✓ | 97%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 14 | 14 | ✓ | 95%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Renewal | Yes | 13 | 16 | ✓ | 96%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Inflation | Yes | 12 | 14 | ✓ | 97%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Dividend | Yes | 6 | 7 | ✓ | 39%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Kirkland | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 95%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Expansion | Yes | 3 | 4 | ✓ | 86%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Inventory | Yes | 2 | 3 | ✓ | 94%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Revenue | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 80%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Spending | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 56%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Valuation | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 12%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Holiday | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 84%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Labor | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | 78%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Hot Dog | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 50%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Automation | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 13%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
4 matches for “Middle East”; 4 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…look at the rest of the fiscal year, the situation in the Middle East could impact fuel costs and shipping schedules if there is instability…
…moving through very well. So we haven't seen any disruptions from the Middle East in our regular merchandise flow, but we're watching that very cautiously,…
…know what the impact longer term might be from events in the Middle East at the moment. But generally speaking, if gas prices start to…
…have to see how things play out with the situation in the Middle East. But certainly, as we look at what happened during the second…
Where the listed words were said
…price deflation and changes in FX. Moving down the income statement to membership fee income. We reported membership fee income of $1.355 billion, an increase…
…before turning it back over to Gary. Let me start by addressing tariffs, as I know this topic is of great interest to our members…
…last year and 147.2 million cardholders, up 4.7% year-over-year. In terms of renewal rates, at Q2 end, our U.S. and Canada renewal rate was 92.1%,…
…as eggs, cheese, coffee and some paper products as we saw lower inflation in these commodities. We will continue to be a pricing authority and…
…subject to Board approval, we want to continue to grow the regular dividend because we think that's a core sort of fundamental part of demonstrating…
…buying efforts globally to lower the cost of goods, leaning in on Kirkland Signature, where we have the most control of the supply chain and…
…both in employees and in pricing and in the business overall and expansion, as Gary mentioned and I mentioned in the earlier talk that we…
…down with lower prices for our members. But because we turn the inventory so quickly, we also tend to get some financial benefit in there.…
…us in terms of adding younger new members and helping with total revenue growth and some of the comments I made about the membership growth,…
…to more of those marketing dollars that our vendors and suppliers are spending. Our first priority is really to build the capabilities internally around delivering…
…balance on our balance sheet today. And we do think, with our valuation, the special dividend is probably the most effective way to return excess…
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