Costco (COST): FY26 Q2 earnings call, Mar 5, 2026
On its Mar 5, 2026 earnings call (FY26 Q2), Costco said 11 of the 15 words Kalshi listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 15 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
15 words · 11 settled yes · our count agreed on 15 of 15- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Membership | Yes | 23 | 28 | ✓ | 97%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 14 | 14 | ✓ | 95%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Renewal | Yes | 13 | 16 | ✓ | 96%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Inflation | Yes | 12 | 14 | ✓ | 97%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Dividend | Yes | 6 | 7 | ✓ | 39%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Kirkland | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 95%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Expansion | Yes | 3 | 4 | ✓ | 86%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Inventory | Yes | 2 | 3 | ✓ | 94%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Revenue | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 80%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Spending | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 56%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Valuation | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 12%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Holiday | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 84%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Labor | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | 78%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Hot Dog | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 50%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Automation | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 13%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
9 matches for “Gold”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…included items ranging from duck and quail eggs, Year of the Horse-inspired gold jewelry and bullion and Shine Muscat grapes. We also had a very…
…comp sales were up high single digits in Q2. Top-performing departments were gold and jewelry, tires, majors, health and beauty and small electrics. Unique items…
…was up 32% and app traffic was up 45%. Sales of pharmacy, gold and jewelry, toys, tires, small electrics, special events and housewares, all grew…
…dynamics affected the first 2 months of the year? And then similarly, gold has been very spiked into the beginning of January, has pulled back…
…maybe just answer it in general terms. You mentioned the question around gold. I think as we look at the overall state of the consumer…
Where the listed words were said
…price deflation and changes in FX. Moving down the income statement to membership fee income. We reported membership fee income of $1.355 billion, an increase…
…before turning it back over to Gary. Let me start by addressing tariffs, as I know this topic is of great interest to our members…
…last year and 147.2 million cardholders, up 4.7% year-over-year. In terms of renewal rates, at Q2 end, our U.S. and Canada renewal rate was 92.1%,…
…as eggs, cheese, coffee and some paper products as we saw lower inflation in these commodities. We will continue to be a pricing authority and…
…subject to Board approval, we want to continue to grow the regular dividend because we think that's a core sort of fundamental part of demonstrating…
…buying efforts globally to lower the cost of goods, leaning in on Kirkland Signature, where we have the most control of the supply chain and…
…both in employees and in pricing and in the business overall and expansion, as Gary mentioned and I mentioned in the earlier talk that we…
…relatively stable in Q2, and our merchants feel good about our current inventory position heading into the spring. That said, as we look at the…
…us in terms of adding younger new members and helping with total revenue growth and some of the comments I made about the membership growth,…
…to more of those marketing dollars that our vendors and suppliers are spending. Our first priority is really to build the capabilities internally around delivering…
…balance on our balance sheet today. And we do think, with our valuation, the special dividend is probably the most effective way to return excess…
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