Microsoft (MSFT): FY26 Q2 earnings call, Jan 28, 2026
On its Jan 28, 2026 earnings call (FY26 Q2), Microsoft said 8 of the 11 words Kalshi listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 11 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
11 words · 8 settled yes · our count agreed on 11 of 11- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI | Yes | 14 | 15 | ✓ | 96%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| R&D / Research and Development | Yes | 8 | 8 | ✓ | 57%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Teams | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 94%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Gaming | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 93%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 94%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Nvidia | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 65%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Anthropic | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 36%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Windows 11 | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 76%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Phi | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 61%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| College | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 18%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Cybersecurity | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 16%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
1 match for “Windows 11”; 1 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…or more of our workloads. Windows reached a big milestone, 1 billion Windows 11 users, up over 45% year over year. And we had share…
Where the listed words were said
…we were able to achieve in one of our highest volume workloads, OpenAI inferencing, powering our co-pilots. And another example was the unlocking of new…
…and EDA are using Microsoft Discovery to orchestrate specialized agents for R and D end to end. They're able to reason over scientific literature and…
…or using the transcript of your last engineering and design meeting in Teams. And we're going beyond that with GitHub Copilot SDK. Developers can now…
…compute capacity and AI talent as well as impairment charges in our gaming business. Operating margins increased year over year to 47% ahead of expectations.…
…currency, again driven by ARPU growth. Microsoft 365 consumer subscriptions grew 6%. LinkedIn revenue increased 11% in constant currency, driven by marketing solutions. Dynamics 365…
…of total capacity this quarter alone. At the silicon layer, we have NVIDIA and AMD and our own Maya chips delivering the best all-up fleet…
…as well as Claude 4.5. Already over 1,500 customers have used both Anthropic and OpenAI models on Foundry. We are seeing increasing demand for region-specific…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/microsoft:2026-01-28:earnings_call · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=microsoft:2026-01-28:earnings_call · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP