Will Microsoft say “Windows 11”?
Microsoft did not say “Windows 11” on its Jul 29, 2026 call (FY26 Q4); it said it on 6 of its last 8 calls: 1, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1, 0, 0 times. As of Oct 23, 2026, Microsoft said “Windows 11” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jan 28, 2026 (33%), most recently on Jan 28, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 40% (n=3, from settlement history blended with transcripts), not a forecast.
- Last 10
- 1/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- company speakers + operator
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Microsoft
Windows 11
- Probability
- 40% · n=3
- Settled
- 1/3 (33%)
- Last calls
- said in 6 of 8
Next listing counts: company speakers + operator
Counts: company speakers + operator
1 counted (1 in prepared remarks, 0 in Q&A).
…or more of our workloads. Windows reached a big milestone, 1 billion Windows 11 users, up over 45% year over year. And we had share…
Counts: company speakers + operator (not listed here; the usual rule)
1 counted (1 in prepared remarks, 0 in Q&A).
…excited about all the progress Copilot is making, starting with Windows. Every Windows 11 PC now is an AI PC. Just 2 weeks ago, we…
Counts: company speakers + operator (not listed here; the usual rule)
2 counted (2 in prepared remarks, 0 in Q&A).
…in engagement and successful sessions. And we are bringing Copilot to every Windows 11 PC. With Copilot Vision, you can share your screen with Copilot…
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 2026 | Windows 11 |  Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Windows 11 |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Windows 11 | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jan 28, 2026 | Windows 11 | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
Questions
- How many times did Microsoft say “Windows 11” on its last earnings call?
- Microsoft did not say “Windows 11” on its Jul 29, 2026 call (FY26 Q4); it said it on 6 of its last 8 calls: 1, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1, 0, 0 times.
- How often does Microsoft say “Windows 11”?
- As of Oct 23, 2026, Microsoft said “Windows 11” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jan 28, 2026 (33%), most recently on Jan 28, 2026.
- What is the probability Microsoft says “Windows 11” next time?
- 40%, from settlement history blended with transcripts (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: company speakers + operator.
Cite parrot.markets, “Microsoft: ‘Windows 11’ mention history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/earnings/MSFT/words/windows-11 (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=microsoft&word=windows%2011 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=microsoft&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP