Microsoft (MSFT): FY26 Q2 earnings call, Jan 28, 2026
On its Jan 28, 2026 earnings call (FY26 Q2), Microsoft said 8 of the 11 words Kalshi listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 11 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
11 words · 8 settled yes · our count agreed on 11 of 11- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI | Yes | 14 | 15 | ✓ | 96%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| R&D / Research and Development | Yes | 8 | 8 | ✓ | 57%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Teams | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 94%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Gaming | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 93%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 94%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Nvidia | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 65%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Anthropic | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 36%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Windows 11 | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 76%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Phi | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 61%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| College | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 18%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Cybersecurity | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 16%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
5 matches for “Hardware”; 4 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…the best all-up fleet performance, cost, and supply across multiple generations of hardware. Earlier this week, we brought online our Maya 200 accelerator. Maya 200…
…strong content performance, partially offset by growth in Xbox Game Pass. And hardware revenue should decline year over year. Now some additional thoughts on the…
…to understand is how to think about your line of sight from hardware CapEx investment to revenue and margins. You capitalize servers over six years,…
…able to capture sufficient revenue over the six-year use life of the hardware to deliver solid revenue and gross profit dollars growth. Hopefully, one similar…
Where the listed words were said
…we were able to achieve in one of our highest volume workloads, OpenAI inferencing, powering our co-pilots. And another example was the unlocking of new…
…and EDA are using Microsoft Discovery to orchestrate specialized agents for R and D end to end. They're able to reason over scientific literature and…
…or using the transcript of your last engineering and design meeting in Teams. And we're going beyond that with GitHub Copilot SDK. Developers can now…
…growth in LinkedIn with 30% growth in paid video ads. And in gaming, we are committed to delivering great games across Xbox, PC, cloud, and…
…currency, again driven by ARPU growth. Microsoft 365 consumer subscriptions grew 6%. LinkedIn revenue increased 11% in constant currency, driven by marketing solutions. Dynamics 365…
…cloud or any other cloud. And partners like Adobe, Databricks, Genspaw, Glean, NVIDIA, SAP, ServiceNow, and Workday are already integrating agent 365. We are the…
…as well as Claude 4.5. Already over 1,500 customers have used both Anthropic and OpenAI models on Foundry. We are seeing increasing demand for region-specific…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/microsoft:2026-01-28:earnings_call · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=microsoft:2026-01-28:earnings_call · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP