Costco (COST): FY25 Q4 earnings call, Sep 25, 2025
On its Sep 25, 2025 earnings call (FY25 Q4), Costco said 14 of the 16 words Kalshi listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 16 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
16 words · 14 settled yes · our count agreed on 16 of 16- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Membership | Yes | 45 | 55 | ✓ | 95%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Growth | Yes | 32 | 40 | ✓ | 96%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Inflation | Yes | 17 | 20 | ✓ | 94%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 17 | 19 | ✓ | 85%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Margin | Yes | 16 | 19 | ✓ | 95%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Renewal | Yes | 15 | 18 | ✓ | 92%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Kirkland | Yes | 10 | 11 | ✓ | 91%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Expansion | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 59%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Hot Dog | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 45%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Inventory | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 89%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Labor | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 47%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Consumer | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 81%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Revenue | Yes | 2 | 4 | ✓ | 45%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Spending | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 70%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Dividend | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 60%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Valuation | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 16%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
19 matches for “Tariff”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…more high-quality value to our members while offsetting potentially inflationary impacts from tariffs. As mentioned last quarter, we are continuing to look at opportunities to…
…and convenience for our members. Our merchants adjusted their plans to mitigate tariff impacts and source items that our members need while delivering the lowest…
…to deliver greater value to members and our high-quality alternatives to some tariff-impacted goods. KS items typically offer members 15 to 20% value compared to…
…closely with our suppliers to find ways to mitigate the impact of tariffs, including moving the country of production where it makes sense, and consolidating…
…greater agility to navigate the current environment and minimize the impact of tariffs. Our ultimate goal is to increase our member values compared to the…
Where the listed words were said
…seen a meaningful increase in upgrades from Gold Star members to Executive Membership. Another way we are improving the member experience is through the rollout…
…accounted for a little less than half of the membership fee income growth in the quarter. Excluding the membership fee increase and FX, membership income…
…essentially in line with the estimate we provided last quarter as overall inflation remained consistent with Q3. On to SG&A. Our reported SG&A rate in…
…question, Chuck. I'll cover the first couple of parts around margin and tariffs and then Ron will talk a little bit more about assortment for…
…for this cohort of new members in the future. Turning to gross margin. Our reported rate in the fourth quarter was higher year over year…
…and 145.2 million cardholders, up 6.1% year over year. In terms of renewal rates at Q4 end, our US and Canada renewal rate was 92.3%,…
…helping with there as well. We also saw some mixed benefits with Kirkland Signature penetration improving. And then similar to last quarter, in fresh in…
…of which five are relocations. We continue to see significant opportunities for expansion both domestically and internationally across the markets where we currently operate. Gary…
…recently celebrated a few milestones including the fortieth anniversary of our $1.50 hot dog and soda combo. Fittingly, we've just completed the rollout of Coca-Cola,…
…margins in all categories. While fresh further benefited from lower spoilage and labor efficiencies. Ancillary and other businesses' gross margin was lower by 11 basis…
…by Disney, Uber, and DoorDash. And majors were up high teens with consumer electronics leading the way. We also added a number of new high-quality…
…As they are helping to grow our overall membership base and membership revenue, and are also introducing younger members to Costco. Almost half of our…
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