Costco (COST): FY25 Q4 earnings call, Sep 25, 2025
On its Sep 25, 2025 earnings call (FY25 Q4), Costco said 14 of the 16 words Kalshi listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 16 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
16 words · 14 settled yes · our count agreed on 16 of 16- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Membership | Yes | 45 | 55 | ✓ | 95%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Growth | Yes | 32 | 40 | ✓ | 96%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Inflation | Yes | 17 | 20 | ✓ | 94%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 17 | 19 | ✓ | 85%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Margin | Yes | 16 | 19 | ✓ | 95%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Renewal | Yes | 15 | 18 | ✓ | 92%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Kirkland | Yes | 10 | 11 | ✓ | 91%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Expansion | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 59%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Hot Dog | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 45%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Inventory | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 89%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Labor | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 47%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Consumer | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 81%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Revenue | Yes | 2 | 4 | ✓ | 45%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Spending | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 70%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Dividend | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 60%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Valuation | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 16%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
18 matches for “Renewal”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…and 145.2 million cardholders, up 6.1% year over year. In terms of renewal rates at Q4 end, our US and Canada renewal rate was 92.3%,…
…would therefore expect to continue to see a small decline in our renewal rate as this change in membership mix gets fully reflected in our…
…much for taking my question. You mentioned that you would expect your renewal rate to continue to fall as some of the digital sign-ups accrete…
…the membership metrics because to your point, we certainly look at the renewal rate and it's an important measure for us and talk a little…
…bigger picture step back because overall, we think the membership base, the renewal rate is very strong overall, and the results that we're seeing in…
Where the listed words were said
…seen a meaningful increase in upgrades from Gold Star members to Executive Membership. Another way we are improving the member experience is through the rollout…
…accounted for a little less than half of the membership fee income growth in the quarter. Excluding the membership fee increase and FX, membership income…
…essentially in line with the estimate we provided last quarter as overall inflation remained consistent with Q3. On to SG&A. Our reported SG&A rate in…
…more high-quality value to our members while offsetting potentially inflationary impacts from tariffs. As mentioned last quarter, we are continuing to look at opportunities to…
…basis points, coming in at 11.13% compared to 11% last year. Gross margin was up three basis points excluding gas deflation. Core was higher by…
…it's something that we take pride in the overall level of membership renewal that we see. When we analyze it, it really is essentially the…
…high single-digit comps. With cola and candy showing the strongest results. New Kirkland Signature offerings allow us to deliver greater value to members and our…
…of which five are relocations. We continue to see significant opportunities for expansion both domestically and internationally across the markets where we currently operate. Gary…
…recently celebrated a few milestones including the fortieth anniversary of our $1.50 hot dog and soda combo. Fittingly, we've just completed the rollout of Coca-Cola,…
…the quarter, which is calculated by comparing the net landed cost of inventory at the beginning of the fiscal year to the net landed cost…
…margins in all categories. While fresh further benefited from lower spoilage and labor efficiencies. Ancillary and other businesses' gross margin was lower by 11 basis…
…being delivered as well too, which is a big driver from the consumer out there is that they want the goods that we have at…
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