Costco (COST): FY25 Q4 earnings call, Sep 25, 2025
On its Sep 25, 2025 earnings call (FY25 Q4), Costco said 14 of the 16 words Kalshi listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 16 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
16 words · 14 settled yes · our count agreed on 16 of 16- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Membership | Yes | 45 | 55 | ✓ | 95%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Growth | Yes | 32 | 40 | ✓ | 96%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Inflation | Yes | 17 | 20 | ✓ | 94%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 17 | 19 | ✓ | 85%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Margin | Yes | 16 | 19 | ✓ | 95%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Renewal | Yes | 15 | 18 | ✓ | 92%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Kirkland | Yes | 10 | 11 | ✓ | 91%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Expansion | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 59%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Hot Dog | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 45%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Inventory | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 89%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Labor | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 47%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Consumer | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 81%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Revenue | Yes | 2 | 4 | ✓ | 45%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Spending | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 70%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Dividend | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 60%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Valuation | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 16%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
6 matches for “Instacart”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…for executive members, we also introduced a $10 credit per month on Instacart purchases greater than $150. Since announcing these new executive benefits, we've seen…
…all sales that originated online including our same-day delivery service fulfilled by Instacart, Uber Eats, DoorDash, Costco Travel, business center delivery, and a few other…
…extended opening hours that Ron mentioned in the earlier comments and the Instacart benefits and the 5% cash rewards on the credit card that we…
…value that we're adding to the membership, the extended opening hours, the Instacart benefits that we referenced earlier. And certainly, with the growth that we've…
…capabilities. Can you talk about if you've seen a spike in your Instacart driven traffic since then? I know you've added some benefits, so maybe…
Where the listed words were said
…would have been up 2.6% worldwide. Moving down the income statement to membership fee income. We reported membership fee income of $1.72 billion, an increase…
…membership income grew 7% year over year. This was driven by continued growth in our membership base and increased upgrades from Gold Star to Executive…
…essentially in line with the estimate we provided last quarter as overall inflation remained consistent with Q3. On to SG&A. Our reported SG&A rate in…
…more high-quality value to our members while offsetting potentially inflationary impacts from tariffs. As mentioned last quarter, we are continuing to look at opportunities to…
…for this cohort of new members in the future. Turning to gross margin. Our reported rate in the fourth quarter was higher year over year…
…and 145.2 million cardholders, up 6.1% year over year. In terms of renewal rates at Q4 end, our US and Canada renewal rate was 92.3%,…
…high single-digit comps. With cola and candy showing the strongest results. New Kirkland Signature offerings allow us to deliver greater value to members and our…
…of which five are relocations. We continue to see significant opportunities for expansion both domestically and internationally across the markets where we currently operate. Gary…
…recently celebrated a few milestones including the fortieth anniversary of our $1.50 hot dog and soda combo. Fittingly, we've just completed the rollout of Coca-Cola,…
…the quarter, which is calculated by comparing the net landed cost of inventory at the beginning of the fiscal year to the net landed cost…
…margins in all categories. While fresh further benefited from lower spoilage and labor efficiencies. Ancillary and other businesses' gross margin was lower by 11 basis…
…being delivered as well too, which is a big driver from the consumer out there is that they want the goods that we have at…
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