United Nations
As of Oct 24, 2026, Kalshi has settled 47 word markets on the United Nations’ appearances since 2026, on 32 different words.
History Wall
1–32 of 32, most settled first| Word | Jan 13speech | Jan 15briefing | Jan 16speech | May 28latest | Last 4 | Settled | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nuclear | Settled yes: Nuclear, Jan 13 speech | Settled no: Nuclear, Jan 15 briefing | Settled yes: Nuclear, Jan 16 speech | Settled no: Nuclear, May 28 speech | 2/450% | 2/450% | 45%n=4 from settlement history |
| NATO / Ally | Settled yes: NATO / Ally, Jan 13 speech | Not listed: NATO / Ally, Jan 15 briefing | Settled no: NATO / Ally, Jan 16 speech | Settled no: NATO / Ally, May 28 speech | 1/333% | 1/333% | 42%n=3 from settlement history |
| Marco / Rubio | Settled no: Marco / Rubio, Jan 13 speech | Not listed: Marco / Rubio, Jan 15 briefing | Settled no: Marco / Rubio, Jan 16 speech | Settled yes: Marco / Rubio, May 28 speech | 1/333% | 1/333% | 50%n=3 from settlement history |
| Trump | Settled yes: Trump, Jan 13 speech | Settled no: Trump, Jan 15 briefing | Not listed: Trump, Jan 16 speech | Settled no: Trump, May 28 speech | 1/333% | 1/333% | 43%n=3 from settlement history |
| Kyiv / Kiev | Settled yes: Kyiv / Kiev, Jan 13 speech | Not listed: Kyiv / Kiev, Jan 15 briefing | Not listed: Kyiv / Kiev, Jan 16 speech | Settled yes: Kyiv / Kiev, May 28 speech | 2/2100% | 2/2100% | 56%n=2 from settlement history |
| Russia | Settled yes: Russia, Jan 13 speech | Not listed: Russia, Jan 15 briefing | Not listed: Russia, Jan 16 speech | Settled yes: Russia, May 28 speech | 2/2100% | 2/2100% | 56%n=2 from settlement history |
| Ceasefire | Settled no: Ceasefire, Jan 13 speech | Not listed: Ceasefire, Jan 15 briefing | Not listed: Ceasefire, Jan 16 speech | Settled yes: Ceasefire, May 28 speech | 1/250% | 1/250% | 52%n=2 from settlement history |
| China | Settled no: China, Jan 13 speech | Settled yes: China, Jan 15 briefing | Not listed: China, Jan 16 speech | Not listed: China, May 28 speech | 1/250% | 1/250% | 50%n=2 from settlement history |
| Drone | Settled no: Drone, Jan 13 speech | Not listed: Drone, Jan 15 briefing | Not listed: Drone, Jan 16 speech | Settled no: Drone, May 28 speech | 0/20% | 0/20% | 40%n=2 from settlement history |
| Putin | Settled no: Putin, Jan 13 speech | Not listed: Putin, Jan 15 briefing | Not listed: Putin, Jan 16 speech | Settled no: Putin, May 28 speech | 0/20% | 0/20% | 40%n=2 from settlement history |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Jan 13 speech | Settled yes: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Jan 15 briefing | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Jan 16 speech | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, May 28 speech | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Ayatollah / Khamenei | Not listed: Ayatollah / Khamenei, Jan 13 speech | Not listed: Ayatollah / Khamenei, Jan 15 briefing | Settled yes: Ayatollah / Khamenei, Jan 16 speech | Not listed: Ayatollah / Khamenei, May 28 speech | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Climate | Not listed: Climate, Jan 13 speech | Settled yes: Climate, Jan 15 briefing | Not listed: Climate, Jan 16 speech | Not listed: Climate, May 28 speech | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Crisis | Not listed: Crisis, Jan 13 speech | Settled yes: Crisis, Jan 15 briefing | Not listed: Crisis, Jan 16 speech | Not listed: Crisis, May 28 speech | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Gaza | Not listed: Gaza, Jan 13 speech | Settled yes: Gaza, Jan 15 briefing | Not listed: Gaza, Jan 16 speech | Not listed: Gaza, May 28 speech | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Hormuz / Gulf | Not listed: Hormuz / Gulf, Jan 13 speech | Not listed: Hormuz / Gulf, Jan 15 briefing | Settled yes: Hormuz / Gulf, Jan 16 speech | Not listed: Hormuz / Gulf, May 28 speech | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Human Right | Not listed: Human Right, Jan 13 speech | Settled yes: Human Right, Jan 15 briefing | Not listed: Human Right, Jan 16 speech | Not listed: Human Right, May 28 speech | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Israel / Israeli | Not listed: Israel / Israeli, Jan 13 speech | Not listed: Israel / Israeli, Jan 15 briefing | Settled yes: Israel / Israeli, Jan 16 speech | Not listed: Israel / Israeli, May 28 speech | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Peace / Justice | Not listed: Peace / Justice, Jan 13 speech | Settled yes: Peace / Justice, Jan 15 briefing | Not listed: Peace / Justice, Jan 16 speech | Not listed: Peace / Justice, May 28 speech | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Missile / Tomahawk | Settled yes: Missile / Tomahawk, Jan 13 speech | Not listed: Missile / Tomahawk, Jan 15 briefing | Not listed: Missile / Tomahawk, Jan 16 speech | Not listed: Missile / Tomahawk, May 28 speech | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Protest / Protester | Not listed: Protest / Protester, Jan 13 speech | Not listed: Protest / Protester, Jan 15 briefing | Settled yes: Protest / Protester, Jan 16 speech | Not listed: Protest / Protester, May 28 speech | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Regime | Not listed: Regime, Jan 13 speech | Not listed: Regime, Jan 15 briefing | Settled yes: Regime, Jan 16 speech | Not listed: Regime, May 28 speech | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | Not listed: Terrorist / Terrorism, Jan 13 speech | Not listed: Terrorist / Terrorism, Jan 15 briefing | Settled yes: Terrorist / Terrorism, Jan 16 speech | Not listed: Terrorist / Terrorism, May 28 speech | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Ukraine | Not listed: Ukraine, Jan 13 speech | Settled yes: Ukraine, Jan 15 briefing | Not listed: Ukraine, Jan 16 speech | Not listed: Ukraine, May 28 speech | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| China / Chinese | Not listed: China / Chinese, Jan 13 speech | Not listed: China / Chinese, Jan 15 briefing | Not listed: China / Chinese, Jan 16 speech | Settled no: China / Chinese, May 28 speech | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Green / Clean | Not listed: Green / Clean, Jan 13 speech | Settled no: Green / Clean, Jan 15 briefing | Not listed: Green / Clean, Jan 16 speech | Not listed: Green / Clean, May 28 speech | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Democracy | Not listed: Democracy, Jan 13 speech | Settled no: Democracy, Jan 15 briefing | Not listed: Democracy, Jan 16 speech | Not listed: Democracy, May 28 speech | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Diplomacy | Not listed: Diplomacy, Jan 13 speech | Not listed: Diplomacy, Jan 15 briefing | Settled no: Diplomacy, Jan 16 speech | Not listed: Diplomacy, May 28 speech | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Gender | Not listed: Gender, Jan 13 speech | Settled no: Gender, Jan 15 briefing | Not listed: Gender, Jan 16 speech | Not listed: Gender, May 28 speech | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Hormuz | Not listed: Hormuz, Jan 13 speech | Not listed: Hormuz, Jan 15 briefing | Not listed: Hormuz, Jan 16 speech | Settled no: Hormuz, May 28 speech | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Iran / Iranian | Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Jan 13 speech | Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Jan 15 briefing | Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Jan 16 speech | Settled no: Iran / Iranian, May 28 speech | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Supreme Leader | Not listed: Supreme Leader, Jan 13 speech | Not listed: Supreme Leader, Jan 15 briefing | Settled no: Supreme Leader, Jan 16 speech | Not listed: Supreme Leader, May 28 speech | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
- Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
- N: settled no
- not listed
- probability next time, with n
- Select a word or a cell for its quotes
What the columns mean
- Last N
- of the appearances shown, how many counted as said
- Settled
- every settled market of the word: said / listed
- Probability
- the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history
Appearances and settled record
latest 4Settled results come from the venues. Our own transcript counts appear here once transcripts arrive for these appearances. How we check.
| Date | Appearance | Text | Words | Settled | Our count agreed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 28, 2026 | SpeechWhat will the US rep say during the UN Security Council? | no transcript | 13 | 4 yes · 9 no | – |
| Jan 16, 2026 | SpeechWhat will the US rep say during the UN Security Council? | no transcript | 11 | 7 yes · 4 no | – |
| Jan 15, 2026 | Press briefingWhat will the UN President say during her briefing on priorities for 2026? | no transcript | 13 | 8 yes · 5 no | – |
| Jan 13, 2026 | SpeechWhat will the US rep say during the UN Security Council? | no transcript | 11 | 6 yes · 5 no | – |
Citeparrot.markets, “United Nations: mention market word history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/world/united-nations (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/entity/united-nations · words: /api/v1/history?entity=united-nations · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP