United Nations: Speech, Jan 16, 2026
Kalshi What will the US rep say during the UN Security Council?
Markets
11 words · 7 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nuclear | Yes | 57%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Ayatollah / Khamenei | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hormuz / Gulf | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Israel / Israeli | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Protest / Protester | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Regime | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| NATO / Allies | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Diplomacy | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Supreme Leader | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Marco / Rubio | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
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