United Nations: Speech, May 28, 2026
Kalshi What will the US rep say during the UN Security Council?
Markets
12 words · 4 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyiv / Kiev | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Russia | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ceasefire | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Marco / Rubio | Yes | 38%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | No | 59%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump | No | 54%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | No | 50%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| NATO / Ally | No | 50%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Drone | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Putin | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXUNMENTION-26MAY28 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP