What is the probability United Nations says “Ceasefire” next time?

52%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will United Nations say “Ceasefire”?

Name: United Nations: “Ceasefire” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 25, 2026, United Nations said “Ceasefire” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 13, 2026 (50%), most recently on May 28, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 52% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.

52%from settlement history only · n=2counts: named speaker only

Last 10: 1/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes
Streak: said last time
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 25, 2026, 11:36 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

United Nations

Ceasefire

Probability: 52% · n=2
Settled: 1/2 (50%)

Next listing counts: named speaker only

We don’t have transcripts for United Nations yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.

What will the US rep say during the UN Security Council? · settled yes

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What will the US rep say during the UN Security Council? · not listed

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What will the UN President say during her briefing on priorities for 2026? · not listed

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What will the US rep say during the UN Security Council? · settled no

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Every settled listing

newest first · 2 shown

Every settled listing of this word, newest first
Date	Listed as	Venue	Result
May 28, 2026	Ceasefire	Kalshi	Yes
Jan 13, 2026	Ceasefire	Kalshi	No

Questions

How often does United Nations say “Ceasefire”?: As of Oct 25, 2026, United Nations said “Ceasefire” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 13, 2026 (50%), most recently on May 28, 2026.
What is the probability United Nations says “Ceasefire” next time?: 52%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?: Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “United Nations: ‘Ceasefire’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/world/united-nations/words/ceasefire (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=united-nations&word=ceasefire · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=united-nations&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP