Will Donald Trump say “Mentally Ill”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Mentally Ill” at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Feb 1, 2026.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (4 rallies, 3 remarks, 1 speech; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 24, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 25, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Mentally Ill
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 0/1 (0%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2026 | Mentally Ill |  Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Mentally Ill”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Mentally Ill” at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Feb 1, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Mentally Ill” next time?
- 48%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Mentally Ill’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/mentally-ill (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=mentally%20ill · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP