Will Donald Trump say “Luck”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump said “Luck” at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Dec 14, 2025.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (4 rallies, 3 remarks, 1 speech; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 24, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 25, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Luck
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 2 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (4 rallies, 3 remarks, 1 speech); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
Thank you. Thank you, Mike and Rick. Thank you. Good luck. We'll be voting and helping and talking, but not long to go. That November…
…fantastically. and you really nice to see you and your family. Good luck. Very important. And reelect all of my friends and their warriors. Greg…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2025 | Luck |  Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Luck”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump said “Luck” at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Dec 14, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Luck” next time?
- 51%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Luck’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/luck (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=luck · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP