Will Donald Trump say “Hormuz / Red Sea”?
As of Oct 26, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Hormuz / Red Sea” at any of the 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Mar 11, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 37% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 0/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Hormuz / Red Sea
- Probability
- 37% · n=2
- Settled
- 0/2 (0%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
Do you think there will be progress made in the Strait of Hormuz?
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2026 | Hormuz / Red Sea |  Polymarket | No |
| Mar 11, 2026 | Hormuz / Red Sea | Polymarket | No |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Hormuz / Red Sea”?
- As of Oct 26, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Hormuz / Red Sea” at any of the 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Mar 11, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Hormuz / Red Sea” next time?
- 37%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Hormuz / Red Sea’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/hormuz-or-red-sea (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=hormuz%20%2F%20red%20sea · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP