What is the probability Donald Trump says “Macro / Hegseth” next time?

38%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will Donald Trump say “Macro / Hegseth”?

Name: Donald Trump: “Macro / Hegseth” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Macro / Hegseth” at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Mar 6, 2026.

Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.

–too little history for a probability (n=1)

Last 10: 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
Streak: not said last time
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 24, 2026, 08:28 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Donald Trump

Macro / Hegseth

Probability: – · n=1 (too little history)
Settled: 0/1 (0%)
Last 8 remarks: said in 1 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Donald TrumpspeakerDonald Trump: Roundtable · Oct 21, 2026 · 3:54In transcript

…families and American businesses. I want to thank Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, Attorney General Todd Blanche -- these are great people, by the way…

The PressreporterDonald Trump: Announcement · Oct 20, 2026 · 1:31:14In transcript

On Israel/Iran, can you fill us in on what Secretary Hegseth spoke about with Prime Minister Netanyahu?

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

What will Trump say during his rally in Florida? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Iowa? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his roundtable? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in South Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in North Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Kansas? · not listed

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What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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What will Trump post this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 1 shown

Every settled listing of this word, newest first
Date	Listed as	Venue	Result
Mar 6, 2026	Macro / Hegseth	Polymarket	No

Questions

How often does Donald Trump say “Macro / Hegseth”?: As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Macro / Hegseth” at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Mar 6, 2026.
What is the probability Donald Trump says “Macro / Hegseth” next time?: 38%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?: Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Macro / Hegseth’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/hegseth-or-macro (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=hegseth%20%2F%20macro · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP