Will Donald Trump say “First” 5+ times?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “First” 5+ times at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Sep 8, 2026.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (5+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
First 5+ times
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 0/1 (0%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
one time I imitated him and I called our great first lady. I said, "How great was I tonight? How great?" And I was walking…
…you to get out and vote. But I kept the Iowa caucuses first in the nation. I did that for you and I did that…
…lives, commit suicide. This has been a top priority for our wonderful first lady, who led a successful bipartisan effort to pass the Take It…
…And we're going to elect a Republican House, a Republican Senate, America First Patriots up and down the line. We have them all standing right…
…of the things. And we're going to let the reporters, for the first time in many cases in your lives, you've done a good job,…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 8, 2026 | First 5+ times |  Polymarket | No | 4 |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “First 5+ times”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “First” 5+ times at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Sep 8, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “First 5+ times” next time?
- 34%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘First 5+ times’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/first-5plus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=first%20%285%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP