Will Donald Trump say “Cuba / Cigar”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Cuba / Cigar” at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Feb 8, 2026.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Last said
- Feb 3, 2026
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Cuba / Cigar
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 2 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…of Iran will tell you that we have the best equipment. No. Cuba. He wants to know what about Cuba. Give me a break. Give…
My administration is also seeking a fundamental change in the situation in Cuba where the communist regime is under great pressure, the biggest pressure they've…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2026 | Cuba / Cigar |  Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Cuba / Cigar”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Cuba / Cigar” at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Feb 8, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Cuba / Cigar” next time?
- 51%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Cuba / Cigar’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/cigar-or-cuba (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=cigar%20%2F%20cuba · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP