Will Donald Trump say “Ballistic Missile”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump said “Ballistic Missile” at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Mar 29, 2026.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (4 rallies, 3 remarks, 1 speech; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 24, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 25, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Last said
- Mar 24, 2026
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Ballistic Missile
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2026 | Ballistic Missile |  Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Ballistic Missile”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump said “Ballistic Missile” at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Mar 29, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Ballistic Missile” next time?
- 52%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Ballistic Missile’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/ballistic-missile (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=ballistic%20missile · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP