What is the probability Zohran Mamdani says “Protest / Protester” next time?

47%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will Zohran Mamdani say “Protest / Protester”?

Name: Zohran Mamdani: “Protest / Protester” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 25, 2026, Zohran Mamdani said “Protest / Protester” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Apr 23, 2026.

Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Oct 6, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.

–too little history for a probability (n=1)

Last 10: 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
Streak: said last time
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 25, 2026, 02:40 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Zohran Mamdani

Protest / Protester

Probability: – · n=1 (too little history)
Settled: 1/1 (100%)
Last 8 remarks: said in 2 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani Announces New NYU Quantum Fabrication Facility, First-of-Its-Kind Partnership To Give City a Stake in Emerging Industry · Oct 14, 2026In transcript

…period that starts with the horrific ICE shooting, that extends to the Police Department's response to that incident as well as to the ensuing protests.

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani and Speaker Menin Cut Red Tape to Expedite Payments for Up to 800 Nonprofits · Oct 8, 2026In transcript

…the importance of disbanding the SRG, the importance of decoupling response to protests from counterterrorism, which, as we know, [is] what SRG was founded for…