What is the probability Zohran Mamdani says “New York” next time?

50%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will Zohran Mamdani say “New York”?

Name: Zohran Mamdani: “New York” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 26, 2026, Zohran Mamdani said “New York” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Nov 20, 2025.

Of the last 8 interviews we have transcripts for (Aug 7, 2026 – Oct 8, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 6.

–too little history for a probability (n=1)

Last 10: 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
Streak: said last time
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 26, 2026, 14:37 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Zohran Mamdani

New York

Probability: – · n=1 (too little history)
Settled: 1/1 (100%)
Last 8 interviews: said in 6 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani Re-Opens Edenwald’s Community, Senior and Child Care Centers · Oct 23, 2026In transcript

…to start with a dear friend who is the speaker of the New York State Assembly, Carl Heastie, who is here. We have our state…

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani Expands Community-Based Violence Prevention to Bushwick, Harlem, and Washington Heights/Inwood · Oct 20, 2026In transcript

…city on average, with gun injuries plummeting by 50 percent in East New York and shooting victimizations dropping 63 percent in the South Bronx after…

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani and Hochul Bring 2‑K to All of the Bronx and Staten Island, Adding 10,000 Seats Across Every Borough · Oct 19, 2026In transcript

…Gibson. We have our assembly members, state senators and City Council members from across New York City. If we can give it up for them!

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani Announces New NYU Quantum Fabrication Facility, First-of-Its-Kind Partnership To Give City a Stake in Emerging Industry · Oct 14, 2026In transcript

…after decade, scientific greatness has been imagined, pursued and achieved here in New York City. In 1931, in a basement uptown at Columbia University, chemist…

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani Delivers Remarks at NYPD Memorial Wall With Commissioner Jessica S. Tisch · Oct 13, 2026In transcript

…Commissioner Tisch and NYPD leadership as we remember 42 members of the New York City Police Department who gave their lives in service to this…