What is the probability Zohran Mamdani says “LaGuardia” next time?

23%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will Zohran Mamdani say “LaGuardia”?

Name: Zohran Mamdani: “LaGuardia” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 26, 2026, Zohran Mamdani did not say “LaGuardia” at any of the 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 24, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 23% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Oct 6, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.

23%from settlement history only · n=3counts: named speaker only

Last 10: 0/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no
Streak: not said the last 3 times
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 26, 2026, 22:23 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Zohran Mamdani

LaGuardia

Probability: 23% · n=3
Settled: 0/3 (0%)
Last 8 remarks: said in 1 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani and Hochul Bring 2‑K to All of the Bronx and Staten Island, Adding 10,000 Seats Across Every Borough · Oct 19, 2026In transcript

We also have PS 205 Fiorella LaGuardia Principal Jenneth Santiago. We have to say thank you to our gracious hosts today, Sky Zone Bronx owners…