What is the probability Zohran Mamdani says “Israel” next time?

50%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will Zohran Mamdani say “Israel”?

Name: Zohran Mamdani: “Israel” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 26, 2026, Zohran Mamdani said “Israel” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Oct 16, 2025.

Of the last 8 interviews we have transcripts for (Aug 7, 2026 – Oct 8, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.

–too little history for a probability (n=1)

Last 10: 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
Streak: said last time
Last said: Oct 15, 2025
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 26, 2026, 15:25 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Zohran Mamdani

Israel

Probability: – · n=1 (too little history)
Settled: 1/1 (100%)
Last 8 interviews: said in 0 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani Announces New NYU Quantum Fabrication Facility, First-of-Its-Kind Partnership To Give City a Stake in Emerging Industry · Oct 14, 2026In transcript

…in the past, that I don't believe that our city should purchase Israel bonds. We don't purchase the bonds of any other sovereign nation. I…

QuestionreporterMayor Mamdani and Speaker Menin Cut Red Tape to Expedite Payments for Up to 800 Nonprofits · Oct 8, 2026In transcript

So, you know, obviously the Israel-Gaza conflict continues to fuel really intense passions on both sides here. So, I have two questions. Do you think…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.