What is the probability Zohran Mamdani says “Harlem” next time?

46%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will Zohran Mamdani say “Harlem”?

Name: Zohran Mamdani: “Harlem” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 25, 2026, Zohran Mamdani said “Harlem” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Feb 25, 2026.

Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Oct 6, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.

–too little history for a probability (n=1)

Last 10: 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
Streak: said last time
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 25, 2026, 02:53 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Zohran Mamdani

Harlem

Probability: – · n=1 (too little history)
Settled: 1/1 (100%)
Last 8 remarks: said in 2 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani Expands Community-Based Violence Prevention to Bushwick, Harlem, and Washington Heights/Inwood · Oct 20, 2026In transcript

…management system across three additional catchment areas that encompass four neighborhoods: Bushwick, Harlem, Washington Heights and Inwood, bringing our total number of CMS neighborhood…

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani and Hochul Bring 2‑K to All of the Bronx and Staten Island, Adding 10,000 Seats Across Every Borough · Oct 19, 2026In transcript

…but no, for my birthday I went to the Studio Museum in Harlem, which is lovely. I would recommend everyone do so if they haven't…