What is the probability Zohran Mamdani says “Israel / Hamas” next time?

28%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will Zohran Mamdani say “Israel / Hamas”?

Name: Zohran Mamdani: “Israel / Hamas” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 26, 2026, Zohran Mamdani did not say “Israel / Hamas” at any of the 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 12, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 28% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Oct 6, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.

28%from settlement history only · n=2counts: named speaker only

Last 10: 0/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no
Streak: not said the last 2 times
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 26, 2026, 08:40 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Zohran Mamdani

Israel / Hamas

Probability: 28% · n=2
Settled: 0/2 (0%)
Last 8 remarks: said in 2 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani Announces New NYU Quantum Fabrication Facility, First-of-Its-Kind Partnership To Give City a Stake in Emerging Industry · Oct 14, 2026In transcript

…in the past, that I don't believe that our city should purchase Israel bonds. We don't purchase the bonds of any other sovereign nation. I…

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani and Speaker Menin Cut Red Tape to Expedite Payments for Up to 800 Nonprofits · Oct 8, 2026In transcript

…commemorating the anniversary, three years of horrific war crimes, three years since Hamas killed more than 1,100 Israelis and abducted hundreds more. Three years of…